empty
14.08.2024 12:18 AM
Key labor market and inflation data will reduce uncertainty regarding the pound. Overview of GBP/USD

The Bank of England started its easing cycle on August 1, and the market expects a further 50 basis points cut by the end of the year. The Bank of England's chief economist, Huw Pill, voted against the cut and warned against expecting more rate cuts in the near future. The market considered this and currently assigns less than a 50% probability to a rate cut next month.

Today's agenda includes updated data on the labor market and inflation. Labor market data for July was released this morning, and it turned out to be significantly unexpected. Average wage growth, excluding bonuses, slowed from 5.7% to 5.4%, which seems like good news in terms of slowing inflation. However, forecasts had suggested a fall to 4.6%. Now, the likelihood of a BoE rate cut next month has become even less likely, which is a frankly bullish signal for the pound.

This image is no longer relevant

At the same time, unemployment rose from 4.4% to 4.7%, and the number of jobless claims was 135,000, compared to a forecast of 14.5%. The sharp increase in claims indicates that the economy is closer to a recession than previously thought, and this figure, on the contrary, provides grounds to continue lowering rates.

As we can see, the market received two opposing signals on Tuesday and reacted with only a slight spike in volatility. It seems that significant conclusions will be drawn on Wednesday after the release of the consumer inflation report.

The NIESR Institute, analyzing various statistical data (CPI, PPI, 10-year UK government bond yields, effective GBP exchange rate, BoE bank rate) within its own forecasting model, expects July inflation to be between 2.2% and 2.4%. This is higher than the previous month and aligns with market forecasts. Interestingly, the forecasts suggest that inflation will decrease to 2% in September, which supports further rate cuts, but then, due to accumulated effects, it will rise back to 2.9% by early 2025, which suggests caution regarding rate cuts.

As we can see, the uncertainty is too high to make a definitive forecast. The market balances expectations for the Federal Reserve and BoE rates, which provides a driver for movement in either direction. However, the accumulated uncertainty needs resolution.

This image is no longer relevant

The net long GBP position decreased by $3.0 billion to $5.9 billion over the reporting week. Despite the significant decline, the bullish bias persists, and although the calculated price has lost some momentum, it is still above the long-term average.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

What to Pay Attention to on April 14? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday. However, the macroeconomic background is not of much interest to traders at the moment. At the very least, it does not drive

Paolo Greco 06:08 2025-04-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD Weekly Preview: The Show Must Go On

Last week, EUR/USD posted its strongest rally of the year, climbing from 1.0882 to a weekly high of 1.1474. A corrective pullback or consolidation phase typically follows such an impulsive

Irina Manzenko 05:37 2025-04-14 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview. April 14: The British Pound Remains a Hostage of the Dollar

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded higher on Friday. However, it's worth noting that the British currency—once praised for its remarkable resilience against the dollar in recent years—is now rising

Paolo Greco 03:37 2025-04-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview. April 14: The Dollar—From Leader to Laggard

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its steady rally on Friday. At this point, there are no more questions about what is happening in the currency market—it's as simple

Paolo Greco 03:37 2025-04-14 UTC+2

The US Dollar: Weekly Preview

There will be a few significant events in the upcoming week. Of course, reports such as industrial production, retail sales, and new home sales should be noted. At first glance

Chin Zhao 00:59 2025-04-14 UTC+2

The ECB May Cut Interest Rates Twice

The euro is showing a sharp rally against the U.S. dollar. The EUR/USD pair has already reached a three-year high and shows no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, according

Jakub Novak 12:42 2025-04-11 UTC+2

AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/USD pair is attempting to attract buyers in its rebound from the psychological level of 0.5900, marking its lowest point since March 2020. The upward momentum has managed

Irina Yanina 12:39 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Markets Face a Prolonged Period of Instability (USD/JPY and USD/CHF Likely to Continue Falling)

On Thursday, investors realized there is currently no such thing as stability. High market volatility remains and will continue to dominate for some time. The ongoing cause of this remains

Pati Gani 09:11 2025-04-11 UTC+2

The Market Has Grown Used to Chaos

What is life if not a game? In past years, investors focused on the standoff between the Federal Reserve and financial markets. But in 2025, the rules of the game

Marek Petkovich 08:42 2025-04-11 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 11? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A relatively large number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but none are expected to impact the market. Of course, we may see short-term reactions to individual reports

Paolo Greco 06:04 2025-04-11 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.