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18.09.2024 04:47 AM
2024年9月18日英鎊/美元預測

週一英鎊的快速增長在昨天顯示出其疲軟,匯價回落到1.3141的支撐位。這是一個更為方便的位置來等待美聯儲的利率決定。由於我們預計降息幅度僅為0.25%,而非市場預期的0.50%,我們正在等待美元走強,英鎊下跌至1.3080。

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隨後,英鎊可能在英格蘭銀行會議後繼續下跌。預計委員會中的七名成員將投票維持當前利率在5.00%,而兩名成員將投票支持降低利率。今天,英國將發布8月的CPI報告。核心指數預計將從3.3% y/y上升至3.6% y/y,而總體指數預計將保持在2.2% y/y不變。

在歐元區,目前的CPI是2.6% y/y,而核心CPI是2.9%,再融資利率則更低。因此,即使英國數據略超出預期,可能不會影響今天的利率投票,但可能會大幅減弱預期。因此,我們可能會看到英鎊跌至1.2994標誌。

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在四小時圖上,Marlin震盪器即將進入下行區域。價格仍然保持在1.3141水平之上並且MACD線(1.3116)之上,這表明目前處於觀望狀態。

Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024
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