empty
08.04.2025 11:49 AM
Market gives away its secret

The world is a stage, and people are its actors. Tragicomedies happen every day in financial markets, but what happened at the start of the second week of April is mesmerizing. In just a few minutes, the capitalization of the US stock market surged by $2.4 trillion thanks to a false message on social media. Its denial by the White House caused the S&P 500 to plummet. What's the message? What did the rollercoaster ride on Wall Street reveal? The nerves of investors, stretched like strings? Or was it the time to buy American stocks?

If you want to make money, use your imagination. If you're thinking about how to make big money, come up with something that will make your hair stand on end.

Someone created a fake Bloomberg account on social media, posted news from the popular media agency for a long time, and gained millions of followers with one goal. On one spring day, they posted information that Hassett was considering a 90-day pause in tariffs against all countries except China. The news was so hot that it was immediately picked up by CNBC and Reuters. The S&P 500 surged, only to fall again.

The S&P 500's reaction to the White House's tariff pause news

This image is no longer relevant

No doubt, investors are unnerved. They are worried about what the White House's protectionist policies might do to the US economy. Tariffs on imports and trade wars threaten a global recession. When fear rules market sentiment, no one wants to buy stocks.

On the other hand, the S&P 500 fell by 20% from its February peak, entering the bear market. This was the second-fastest slump since 1945. The first occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing the Federal Reserve to throw a lifeline to the US economy with mind-boggling monetary stimuli.

The dynamics of the S&P 500's transitions into a bear market

This image is no longer relevant

In such conditions, investors are trying to puzzle out whether the worst has already happened and it is now time for negotiations and tariff rollbacks. Following this logic, is it the right time to buy stocks? If fear shifts to greed, the S&P 500 rally could be so fast that it will take your breath away. The fake news on social media is proof of that. What is needed is one good piece of news to enable the broad stock index to rise from the ashes.

This image is no longer relevant

I don't think the tough times are behind us. At least one trade war, between the US and China, has already started. According to UBS, a recession in the US economy could result in zero corporate profit growth, as every 1 percentage point drop in GDP subtracts 6.9 percentage points from this indicator.

Technically, on the Daily Chart of the S&P 500, a bounce from the support level at 4,905 suggests that the broad stock index may have found a bottom.

There is a high probability of consolidation in the range of 4,900 to 5,200 or 4,900-5,330. It makes sense to sell during a rise to its upper border and buy during a drop to the lower border. In the latter case, you need to think three times, as catching falling knives is extremely dangerous.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The current technical and fundamental setup for the AUD/JPY pair points to short-term pressure from the Japanese yen. However, fundamental factors favoring the Australian dollar help maintain the pair's upside

Irina Yanina 11:28 2025-05-14 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

At the moment, the Japanese yen is showing positive momentum against the U.S. dollar for the second consecutive day.The key factor supporting the Japanese currency has been hawkish comments from

Irina Yanina 11:28 2025-05-14 UTC+2

The Market Is Changing the Rules of the Game

Don't go against the crowd. According to Goldman Sachs and the Federal Reserve, individual investors held $35 trillion worth of U.S. stocks at the end of 2024, equivalent to 38%

Marek Petkovich 09:32 2025-05-14 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 14? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Wednesday. The only item of note is the second estimate of Germany's Business Activity Index for April. Second estimates typically

Paolo Greco 06:11 2025-05-14 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 14: Only the Trade Deal Matters

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair also ended what could only be called disgrace — its decline. On Monday, the U.S. dollar strengthened quite well following a successful first round

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-05-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 14: The Music Didn't Last Long

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced upward movement for most of Tuesday. One gets used to good news quickly, and the market expected further strengthening of the U.S. dollar. We anticipated

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-05-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD. And Then They Woke Up: Market Euphoria Over the U.S.-China Trade Truce Fades

The currency market's initial euphoria following the announcement of a temporary trade truce between the U.S. and China has now faded. The early optimism has given way to the sobering

Irina Manzenko 01:23 2025-05-14 UTC+2

Inflation Does the Dollar a Bearish Disservice

One of the few indicators the market occasionally pays attention to is U.S. inflation. After Donald Trump introduced trade tariffs, economists immediately started discussing rising inflation. This conclusion is logical

Chin Zhao 01:14 2025-05-14 UTC+2

The Euro Prepares for Retaliation

Man proposes, God disposes. After the White House imposed strict tariffs on America's Independence Day, there was much discussion about rising inflation and a slowing U.S. economy. However, instead

Marek Petkovich 00:18 2025-05-14 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CHF pair is pulling back from the monthly high reached yesterday. This retreat is driven by a technical correction following a strong upward move. The U.S. Dollar Index, which

Irina Yanina 18:30 2025-05-13 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.