empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
10.04.2025 12:59 AM
The Dollar – A Toxic Currency
Open trading account Open demo account

Trouble often comes in pairs or groups. The decline of American exceptionalism is only one of the challenges facing EUR/USD bears. The main currency pair remains resilient and occasionally goes on the offensive, even amid declining European stock indices and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The root of the issue lies in the sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds. This market is no longer a safe haven for frightened investors. At this rate, the dollar may soon lose its status as the world's primary reserve currency.

An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth. China was not intimidated by the U.S. raising tariffs by another 50%, bringing the total to 104%. In response, Beijing retaliated by increasing its tariffs on U.S. imports to 84%. Moreover, the rising yield on U.S. Treasuries signals that China may begin offloading its holdings of U.S. debt — which could be even more damaging than the tariffs themselves.

Holdings of U.S. Bonds by China and Japan

This image is no longer relevant

China and Japan are the largest holders of U.S. government bonds, and non-residents collectively own over 30% of the market. After the White House announced its new tariffs on America's "Liberation Day," investors faced a natural question: will other countries still want to fund the U.S. economy by continuing to purchase or hold its debt?

Beijing and Tokyo had previously funneled their trade surpluses with the U.S. into Treasury purchases. However, once the current account balance is factored in, they may be forced to dump those holdings. Rising yields on 10-year notes could even trigger Federal Reserve intervention. Deutsche Bank is predicting the launch of a new quantitative easing (QE) program.

U.S. Bond Yield Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, while non-residents' initial response to Trump's sweeping tariffs was to dump U.S. stocks en masse, U.S. bonds had become the next target by early April. The capital outflow from North America is putting pressure on the U.S. dollar, whose throne has begun to wobble. Given current developments in the global economy, the "greenback" may risk losing its role as the world's primary reserve currency.

This image is no longer relevant

Bank of America believes losing trust and other factors will drive EUR/USD to rally toward 1.12, 1.50, and 1.20 over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively. Conversely, ING sees 1.09 as the fair value for the pair, where it is likely to remain in the near term. Bears may find support in expectations of an ECB deposit rate cut in April, while the Fed is expected to keep its federal funds rate unchanged.

Technically, a 1-2-3 reversal pattern may be forming on the daily EUR/USD chart, but for that to materialize, bears would need to push prices below the fair value level of 1.092. That seems unlikely, so long positions opened from 1.097 should be held and potentially increased. Target levels are 1.130 and 1.160.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Analytical News
US Market News Digest for April 23 The US market is showing renewed signs of instability. Positive signals about a potential de-escalation in the trade conflict with China are fueling hope, but experts warn against excessive optimism
Ekaterina Kiseleva
12:17 2025-04-23 +02:00
1405
Fundamental analysis
The Likelihood of a Euro Reversal to the South Is Increasing As expected, the ECB cut all key interest rates by a quarter-point, bringing the deposit rate down to 2.25%. At this meeting, no new staff projections were released, and given
Kuvat Raharjo
12:01 2025-04-23 +02:00
1435
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Likelihood of a Euro Reversal to the South Is Increasing

As expected, the ECB cut all key interest rates by a quarter-point, bringing the deposit rate down to 2.25%. At this meeting, no new staff projections were released, and given
Kuvat Raharjo 12:01 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Markets Await a Massive Rally if the U.S. Starts Real Negotiations with China (There is a likelihood of continued growth in #NDX and Ethereum)

A new wave of euphoria has swept through the markets. Many believe it's not a coincidence: take everything away from a person and then provide them with even the smallest
Pati Gani 09:03 2025-04-23 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 23? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A considerable number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday. All of them are Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports for April in the services and manufacturing sectors. The indices will
Paolo Greco 07:01 2025-04-23 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 23: The British Pound Can't Stop Smiling

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded much more calmly, yet again showed signs of a "maxed-out flat" pattern. As previously noted, the US dollar has only had two behaviors
Paolo Greco 04:56 2025-04-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 23: Another Calm Before Another Collapse?

The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Tuesday than on Monday. The US dollar managed to avoid another fall, but it's too early to celebrate. The greenback can collapse
Paolo Greco 04:56 2025-04-23 UTC+2

USD/JPY. On the Threshold of the 139th Figure

The USD/JPY pair has been in a consistent downtrend for the fourth consecutive week. On Tuesday, sellers pushed the pair to the edge of the 139.00 area, hitting the lowest
Irina Manzenko 00:46 2025-04-23 UTC+2

The Dollar Has Been Replaced. Nature Abhors a Vacuum

Fear paralyzes, but action persists. Investors are slowly overcoming their concerns over Donald Trump's attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve and are starting to lock in profits
Marek Petkovich 00:08 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Bitcoin Took Its Chance

Slow and steady wins the race! Bitcoin quietly broke through to its highest levels since early March amid Donald Trump's attacks on Jerome Powell. When the independence of the Federal
Marek Petkovich 00:08 2025-04-23 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

After setting a new all-time high at $3500 under overbought conditions, gold prices are pulling back. Nevertheless, bullish sentiment remains strong due to persistent concerns over the potential economic fallout
Irina Yanina 19:02 2025-04-22 UTC+2

EUR/GBP. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/GBP pair is losing ground today after two consecutive days of gains, trading near the psychological level of 0.8600. The pound is receiving support from optimism surrounding ongoing trade
Irina Yanina 11:52 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 02:00 2025-04-24 UTC--4
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 23. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:48 2025-04-23
Forecast
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-04-24 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 23. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:48 2025-04-23
Forecast
Relevance up to 06:00 2025-04-24 UTC--4
US Market News Digest for April 23
12:17 2025-04-23
News
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-04-24 UTC--4
How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on April 23? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners
06:45 2025-04-23
Trading plan
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-04-24 UTC--4
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on April 23
08:48 2025-04-23
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.