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15.11.2024 03:21 PM
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold prices remain under pressure, reaching levels last seen in September. However, the decline has slowed today due to a correction in the US dollar.

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Donald Trump's proposed increases in import tariffs may accelerate inflation, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to pause its monetary easing cycle. Additionally, recent inflation data indicates a slower-than-expected decline in price levels. This dynamic continues to support elevated yields on US Treasury bonds, shifting investor interest away from gold.

The overnight break below the psychological level of $2,600 was perceived as a new catalyst for bearish momentum. Combined with negative oscillators on the daily chart, this indicates that the most likely direction for gold prices remains downward. A further decline below the 100-day SMA, currently near $2,542, is highly probable. If this level is breached, it could pave the way for an extended sharp pullback from recent historical highs, potentially exposing the $2,500 psychological level.

Recovery efforts are expected to encounter resistance near the previous day's high around the $2,581 level, followed by the $2,600 psychological threshold. Sustained strength above this point could trigger a short-covering rally toward the key resistance level at $2,630. If this barrier is overcome, the next significant hurdle lies in the $2,660 level.

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