empty
20.01.2025 09:02 AM
The Market Finds Shelter

The S&P 500 achieved its best weekly performance since the November U.S. presidential election, just before Donald Trump's inauguration. Initially, investors worried that his protectionist policies could negatively impact the U.S. economy. However, they now believe that the potential benefits from deregulation and fiscal stimulus will outweigh the drawbacks. Is this wishful thinking?

The broad market index surged by 4.7% during the week ending January 17, fueled by a strong start to the corporate earnings season and a 0.2% month-over-month decline in core inflation in the U.S. Major banks such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup reported positive fourth-quarter earnings, alleviating investor concerns. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve refraining from rate cuts in 2025—or even increasing rates—has decreased, boosting confidence in two expected monetary easing actions this year. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) official Christopher Waller even suggested the possibility of easing monetary policy in March.

Weekly S&P 500 Performance

This image is no longer relevant

Bank of America suggests that U.S. equities could benefit from Donald Trump's return to the White House. During his first term, Trump viewed the performance of U.S. stock indices as a measure of his effectiveness, and it is unlikely that this perspective will change from 2025 to 2028. UBS Global Wealth Management estimates a 9% increase in corporate earnings this year, which could push the S&P 500 to 6,600.

According to Jefferies, since 1929, the S&P 500 has historically followed a zigzag pattern during presidential inaugurations, averaging gains of 8.3% and 9.5% six and twelve months, respectively, after a new president takes office.

In the early days of Trump's second term, investors will consider the impacts of tariffs and anti-immigration policies alongside the potential benefits of fiscal stimulus and deregulation. It appears that the new president may begin by implementing import tariffs, setting this term apart from his previous one.

Market Expectations for Fed Policy

This image is no longer relevant

During his term from 2017 to 2020, Trump stimulated the economy through tax cuts but later resorted to tariffs and trade wars, which ultimately slowed down growth. This time, the sequence may be reversed. Import tariffs are likely to accelerate inflation and hinder economic growth, even though the current outlook remains strong. For example, the IMF predicts that U.S. GDP will grow by 2.8% in 2024. Consequently, uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy stance could increase, with derivatives currently indicating a 25% probability of a federal funds rate hike.

On the daily chart, the market illustrated the principle: "If the market does not move as expected, it is likely to move in the opposite direction." After an unsuccessful attempt to break below the lower boundary of the triangle, the market successfully breached the upper boundary. A strong test of resistance at 6010 could justify expanding long positions that were initiated at 5930.

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

BCE Mungkin Memotong Kadar Faedah Dua Kali

Euro sedang menunjukkan kenaikan yang mendadak berbanding dolar AS. Pasangan EUR/USD telah mencapai paras tertinggi dalam tiga tahun dan tidak menunjukkan tanda-tanda akan memperlahan. Sementara itu, menurut kaji selidik pakar

Jakub Novak 12:42 2025-04-11 UTC+2

AUD/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pasangan AUD/USD sedang berusaha untuk menarik pembeli dalam pemulihan dari tahap psikologi 0.5900, menandakan tahap terendah sejak Mac 2020. Momentum menaik ini berjaya mengatasi tahap sekitar 0.6200, didorong oleh keyakinan

Irina Yanina 12:39 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Pasaran Menghadapi Tempoh Ketidakstabilan yang Berpanjangan (USD/JPY dan USD/CHF Dijangka Terus Menurun)

Pada hari Khamis, pelabur menyedari bahawa kestabilan tidak wujud pada masa ini. Volatiliti pasaran yang tinggi kekal dan akan terus mendominasi untuk suatu tempoh masa. Penyebab utama keadaan ini adalah

Pati Gani 09:11 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Apa yang Perlu Diberi Perhatian pada 11 April? Ulasan Fundamental dan Peristiwa Penting untuk Pedagang Baharu

Beberapa peristiwa makroekonomi dijadualkan pada hari Jumaat, tetapi tiada satu pun yang dijangka akan memberi kesan kepada pasaran. Sudah tentu, kita mungkin melihat reaksi jangka pendek terhadap laporan individu, tetapi

Paolo Greco 06:04 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD. 11 April: Pasaran Tidak Percaya kepada Trump

Pasangan mata wang GBP/USD turut diniagakan lebih tinggi pada hari Khamis. Sebagai peringatan, faktor makroekonomi dan asas tradisional ketika ini hampir tidak memberikan sebarang pengaruh terhadap pergerakan mata wang. Satu-satunya

Paolo Greco 03:28 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD. 11 April: Komedi Amerika Berterusan

Pasangan mata wang EUR/USD merosot dengan ketara pada malam Rabu tetapi menunjukkan sedikit pemulihan pada siang hari. Pada hari Khamis, terdapat pertumbuhan seterusnya—siri turun naik ini hanya boleh digambarkan sebagai

Paolo Greco 03:28 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Cadangan dan Analisis Dagangan untuk GBP/USD pada 11 April: Dolar Mengalami Dua Tamparan

Pertukaran mata wang GBP/USD juga menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang kuat pada hari Khamis, walaupun tidak sekuat pasangan EUR/USD. Pound meningkat hanya sekitar 200 pip—yang mana bukan pergerakan yang besar dalam keadaan

Paolo Greco 03:28 2025-04-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Isyarat Dari Masa Lalu: Laporan CPI A.S. Gagal Menyokong Dolar

Laporan CPI yang dikeluarkan pada hari Khamis menunjukkan inflasi yang lebih lemah daripada dijangka. Pasaran bertindak balas dengan sewajarnya: dolar A.S. mengalami tekanan baru (Indeks Dolar A.S. jatuh ke dalam

Irina Manzenko 00:47 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Euro Melangkah Maju. Lawan berundur

Kenaikan indeks saham Eropah, penurunan inflasi di AS, dan hakikat bahawa tarif purata AS tidak berubah dengan ketara walaupun terdapat penangguhan selama 90 hari semuanya menyumbang kepada kenaikan EUR/USD. Pasangan

Marek Petkovich 00:47 2025-04-11 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Hari ini, emas mengekalkan nada positif dan didagangkan di atas paras $3100. Kebimbangan terhadap peningkatan ketegangan dalam perang dagangan antara Amerika Syarikat dan China, serta kegusaran terhadap kemungkinan kelembapan ekonomi

Irina Yanina 20:05 2025-04-10 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.