Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test 149.49 occurred when the MACD indicator began moving upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair moved up by about 30 pips, though it didn't quite reach the target level. After yesterday's speech by Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi, who emphasized the need for a gradual approach to raising the key interest rate, it became clear that demand for the Japanese yen is unlikely to return soon. Today's data on the negative trade balance and weak service sector activity index in Japan limited the decline in USD/JPY, renewing interest in the U.S. dollar. Trading will likely remain within the broad horizontal channel, from which we have been unable to break out for some time. As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy signal

Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the entry point around 149.63 (green line on the chart) with a target of growth to the 150.24 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 150.24, I plan to exit the buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). The pair's upward movement can be expected to continue, especially following the recent statements by Bank of Japan officials. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.41 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 149.63 and 150.24 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking through the 149.41 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 148.94 level, where I plan to exit the sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of unsuccessful activity around the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.63 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 149.41 and 148.94 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line – the entry price to buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price to sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely;

MACD indicator – When entering the market, it's important to use overbought and oversold zones.

Important:

Novice traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.