empty
22.01.2025 08:50 AM
Analysis of BTC/USD - January 22: Gary Gensler's Resignation Delights the Market

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure of BTC/USD on the 4-hour chart is quite clear. After a lengthy and complex corrective structure (a-b-c-d-e) that developed from March 14 to August 5, a new impulsive wave has started to form, which is already showing a five-wave structure. Given the size of the first wave, it is likely that the fifth wave may be shortened. Therefore, I do not expect Bitcoin to exceed $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

Additionally, wave 4 has taken on a three-wave form, which confirms the validity of the current wave marking. As wave 5 continues to develop, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities. However, as previously mentioned, this wave could conclude very soon—or it may have already ended. The news environment remains supportive of Bitcoin's growth, driven by reports of investments from institutional traders, governments, and pension funds in certain countries. While some of this information may not be entirely accurate, demand for Bitcoin is on the rise. The critical question now is how long this demand can be sustained.

The Crypto Market Is Optimistic About the Future

On Tuesday, BTC/USD rose by $4,300; however, this increase did not alter the current wave count. I still do not see a convincing wave 2 within the presumed wave 5 that would indicate new buying opportunities for Bitcoin. While Bitcoin is certainly on the rise, the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain. Many analysts believe that Bitcoin's growth is eternal or at least has a long way to go, with price projections ranging from $250,000 to even $1,000,000. Personally, I am less optimistic and expect Bitcoin to experience significant periodic corrections.

Yesterday, the market reacted positively to the resignation of Gary Gensler, who has repeatedly obstructed the crypto industry in recent years. The Trump administration appears to take a more liberal stance toward Bitcoin and other crypto assets, aiming to ease regulations. Moreover, Trump has expressed openness to including Bitcoin in the U.S. strategic reserves. While these developments are contributing to a rise in BTC's price, I remain cautious about the longevity of this growth. Wave 2 within wave 5 could take on a three-wave form, leading to another drop below $100,000. If wave 5 turns out to be truncated, we may see a much stronger collapse of Bitcoin's value. Once again, I am not convinced that Bitcoin will experience perpetual growth under any U.S. president.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

Based on my analysis of BTC/USD, I believe that the current growth phase of this instrument may be nearing its end. While this perspective might be unpopular, I suspect that wave 5 could be truncated, potentially leading to a collapse or a complex correction. Therefore, I do not recommend buying cryptocurrency at this time.

If wave 5 develops into an extended five-wave structure, it should be preceded by a clear corrective wave 2. This corrective wave would indicate that the market is preparing for new buying momentum, creating opportunities for investors to enter.

On a higher timeframe, a five-wave bullish structure is evident. Soon, we may see the emergence of a corrective bearish structure or the onset of a bearish trend.

Key Principles of My Analysis

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are challenging to trade and often subject to change.
  2. If market conditions are unclear, it is better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

El Bitcoin no se detiene: de $96 600 a $104 500 en un solo día

El Bitcoin actualizó el nivel de $104 500, aunque ayer por la mañana se negociaba a $96 600. La consolidación por encima de los $100 000 indica claramente el retorno

Jakub Novak 10:30 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par BTC/USD. El 9 de mayo. El Bitcoin sigue batiendo récords

El conteo de ondas en el gráfico de 4 horas del instrumento BTC/USD se ha vuelto más complejo en los últimos meses. Observamos una estructura correctiva descendente que finalizó

Chin Zhao 07:45 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar en el mercado de criptomonedas el 8 de mayo

El Bitcoin se detuvo a un paso de los $100 000, y el Ether logró alcanzar la marca de $1900. Este fuerte crecimiento del mercado de criptomonedas confirma

Miroslaw Bawulski 11:15 2025-05-08 UTC+2

El Bitcoin a un paso de los $100 000

El Bitcoin actualizó el nivel de $99 400, quedándose a un paso de la marca de $100 000, lo que indica sus serias perspectivas alcistas en el corto plazo

Jakub Novak 11:15 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar con el Bitcoin el 8 de mayo según el sistema ICT

El Bitcoin lo ignora todo. Ayer por la noche se supo que la Fed no bajará la tasa clave en un futuro próximo. Jerome Powell declaró

Paolo Greco 07:40 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar en el mercado de criptomonedas el 7 de mayo

El Bitcoin y el Ether lograron demostrar un nuevo crecimiento en medio de buenas noticias relacionadas con la legislación sobre criptomonedas. El Bitcoin se negocia actualmente a $96 700, rebotando

Miroslaw Bawulski 10:39 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar en el Bitcoin el 7 de mayo según el sistema ICT

El Bitcoin ha comenzado a caer, pero de momento esta caída es demasiado débil. A pesar de la ruptura de la estructura bajista, esperamos una caída de la primera criptomoneda

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar en el mercado de criptomonedas el 6 de mayo

El Bitcoin y el ether pasaron el día dentro de un canal lateral, aunque los signos observados de ventas activas durante la sesión americana de ayer generan ciertas dudas sobre

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:08 2025-05-06 UTC+2

Análisis del par BTC/USD. 6 de mayo. El Bitcoin se prepara para una caída

La estructura de ondas en el gráfico de 4 horas del instrumento BTC/USD se ha vuelto más compleja en los últimos meses. Hemos visto una estructura correctiva descendente que finalizó

Chin Zhao 08:04 2025-05-06 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar con el Bitcoin el 5 de mayo según el sistema ICT.

El Bitcoin finalmente comenzó a mostrar los primeros signos de un giro. A pesar de la ruptura de la estructura bajista, seguimos esperando una caída de la primera criptomoneda. Desde

Paolo Greco 08:28 2025-05-05 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.