empty
12.03.2025 12:45 PM
Markets Haven't Emerged from the Storm

Donald Trump doesn't see a recession, but that isn't helping the S&P 500. The broad stock index has reacted sharply to tensions between Ontario, Canada, which threatened to impose a 25% tariff on electricity exports to the U.S.—potentially leaving millions of Americans without power—and the White House. Trump responded by raising tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, followed by a subsequent reconciliation. However, the ordeal severely rattled nerves and further increased market volatility.

Markets rise on expectations, or rather, on speculation. The S&P 500 rally to February highs was driven by two theories: that Trump's tariff threats were merely a negotiating tactic and that the U.S. president would eventually throw the stock market a lifeline. Neither theory has materialized as spring unfolds.

Tariffs are already high and could rise even further. Trump's speeches suggest he is willing to sacrifice the stock market to achieve his ultimate goal—making America great again. Fears that this strategy might fail are driving capital out of the U.S., leaving the S&P 500 lagging behind its major global competitors.

Stock Index Performance

This image is no longer relevant

According to Trump, markets will go up or down, but the priority is to restore the country by bringing factories and industries back to the U.S. Other countries have taken American businesses and jobs, and it's time to reclaim them. The president does not see a recession and expects an economic boom.

Markets aren't buying it. Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 from 6,500 to 6,200, citing a cooling U.S. economy, potentially higher tariff rates, and greater uncertainty. The latter typically leads to a higher risk premium on stocks.

If Trump doesn't support the S&P 500, could the Federal Reserve step in? Derivatives markets have increased their expectations for monetary easing by the end of the year, now pricing in a total rate cut of 80 basis points, up from 60 basis points just a week ago. However, BNP Paribas warns that investors may face disappointment here as well. The Fed, facing both an approaching recession and persistently high inflation, is likely to delay further rate cuts, preferring a wait-and-see approach.

This image is no longer relevant

The only silver lining is that historically, a 10% decline in the S&P 500 has only deepened into a 20% drop when one of three conditions was met: an economic downturn, an earnings recession, or aggressive Fed tightening. None of these factors are currently present, suggesting that the bottom for the U.S. stock market may be near.

Technically, the S&P 500 continues to follow an Expanding Wedge pattern on the daily chart. The strategy remains the same—focus on selling opportunities and use rebounds from resistance at 5,670 and 5,750 to establish short positions on the broad equity index.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

El Bitcoin huye de la criptocapital del mundo

Donald Trump prometió hacer de América la criptocapital del mundo, pero ¿quién necesita una capital de la que todos huyen? Las peores liquidaciones de empresas tecnológicas desde 2022 entristecieron

Marek Petkovich 11:54 2025-03-11 UTC+2

WTI – West Texas Intermediate. La recuperación de los precios del petróleo está limitada

Hoy, el petróleo ha intentado recuperarse desde los niveles más bajos observados desde septiembre de 2024. Sin embargo, la recuperación no puede considerarse positiva en el corto plazo. Los inversores

Irina Yanina 10:55 2025-03-11 UTC+2

Las negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China sobre comercio están estancadas

Según informes de los medios, las negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China sobre comercio y otros asuntos se han estancado en niveles bajos, ya que ambas partes no logran entenderse

Jakub Novak 07:59 2025-03-11 UTC+2

El gas sigue subiendo rápidamente de precio

Las cotizaciones del gas se han consolidado de manera firme por encima del nivel de $4, y en este momento no hay razones para el regreso del mercado bajista

Miroslaw Bawulski 13:07 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 10 de marzo. La libra esterlina sigue subiendo.

El par de divisas GBP/USD reanudó su movimiento alcista el viernes. El paquete estadístico estadounidense no fue lo suficientemente fuerte, lo que completó el cuadro general del desastre del dólar

Paolo Greco 07:29 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 10 de marzo. ¿Cuánto tiempo más bajará Trump el tipo de cambio del dólar?

El par de divisas EUR/USD, naturalmente, siguió subiendo durante el viernes. Esta vez el mercado tenía buenas razones para vender el dólar, pero recordemos que durante toda la semana pasada

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 5 de marzo. El mercado se está salvando. Se está salvando de la política de Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD sumó unos 80 puntos el martes, y 120 puntos un día antes. Por su parte, el dólar cayó en su cotización casi 200 puntos

Paolo Greco 06:47 2025-03-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 5 de marzo. ¿Corrección alcista o cambio de tendencia global?

El par de divisas EUR/USD subió 110 pips el lunes, y el martes subió otros 60 pips antes del inicio de la sesión americana. La subida del euro

Paolo Greco 06:47 2025-03-05 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.